Lower Mortgage Rates: Good News for Buyers Who Are Still Waiting

Lower mortgage rates have been the reason a lot of buyers in North County are holding off on their home search. But based on what experts are actually forecasting, that wait may last longer than most people expect – and it is worth knowing that before you decide what to do. Because even if rates do not fall the way you are hoping, there are still real ways to move forward.

Lower Mortgage Rates Are Not Where Experts Think They Are Headed

If you are waiting for lower mortgage rates, you are not alone. A recent survey found 42% of people believe rates will drop below 5% this year. The challenge is that is not what the experts who study this every day are expecting. Forecasts from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and Wells Fargo all point to rates staying in the low-to-mid 6% range through at least mid-2027.

Why? Mortgage rates are influenced by inflation, the broader economy, Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy, and global events. Right now, those factors simply are not pointing toward the kind of dramatic drop many buyers are waiting for. Could rates move a little? Of course. But if you are holding out for a bigger shift, today’s forecasts suggest you may be waiting longer than you expect. As we covered in our look at strategies for buyers navigating elevated rates, the case for acting now rather than waiting has only grown stronger.

Inflation Is Still Working Against Lower Mortgage Rates

One major reason experts are not expecting lower mortgage rates anytime soon is inflation. High inflation is one of the biggest obstacles to falling rates – and after a period of relative stability from mid-2023 to late 2025, recent data shows inflation has actually been trending higher again.

In other words, one of the key ingredients needed for meaningfully lower mortgage rates is simply not in place right now. That helps explain why the experts are not forecasting the kind of decline so many buyers are hoping for.

Today’s Rates Are Not High – They Are Normal

This may be the biggest mindset shift of all. While today’s rates may feel high compared to a few years ago, they are not historically high. They are normal. Data from Freddie Mac shows that mortgage rates have spent the majority of their history somewhere between 5% and 10%. It just feels high because we all remember the ultra-low rates of the pandemic years – and those were the exception, not the rule.

This does not make a 6% mortgage feel exciting. But it does mean that waiting for super-low rates again may not be a realistic strategy – and that is important context for anyone still on the sidelines. As we explored in our look at home investment and the 14-year track record of real estate, the long-term value of buying does not depend on timing the perfect rate.

What To Do Instead of Waiting for Lower Mortgage Rates

None of this means you have to buy today. But if something in your life has changed and you need to move, there are real strategies that can help you find better affordability without waiting for lower mortgage rates that may not arrive on your timeline.

Newly built homes are worth a look – many builders are currently offering incentives including price cuts, rate buydowns, and free upgrades to attract buyers. An adjustable-rate mortgage is another option worth asking your lender about, especially if you do not plan to stay in the home long-term. A mortgage rate buydown lets you pay upfront to reduce your rate and lower your monthly payment without waiting for the market to cooperate. And an assumable mortgage – where you take over the seller’s existing loan at their lower rate – is an underused option that more buyers should be exploring. Pairing any of these with the down payment options available right now can make the numbers work better than most buyers realize.

Bottom Line

If you have been putting your home search on hold because you are convinced lower mortgage rates are just around the corner, it is worth taking a hard look at that strategy. The forecasts suggest the wait may be longer than you think – and every month spent waiting is a month of potential equity growth you are not building. If you are a buyer in North County wondering whether waiting is really the right move, let’s connect and we will walk through what your options actually look like right now.

The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Jess & Co. Real Estate, LLC does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Jess & Co. Real Estate, LLC will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.