Home Price Growth: Great News for Buyers and Sellers This Fall

Home price growth may be starting to pick back up in North County and across the country – and after more than a year of headlines predicting price crashes that never arrived, the latest data tells a different story. Here is what buyers and sellers should know heading into fall.

Home Price Growth May Be Starting To Turn

For the past couple of years, home price growth has been moderating – cooling from around 7% in mid-2024, according to Redfin. But look at the more recent data. The pace of that cooling appears to have hit its low point and started to shift direction.

Fewer markets are now seeing prices decline. According to ResiClub and Zillow, about 36% of the 300 largest housing markets had falling prices as of the middle of last year. Since the start of this year, that share has been shrinking – and now only 23% are experiencing those mild dips. When fewer markets see prices falling, that means more markets are seeing home price growth return.

Forecasts support this direction. Experts project home price growth of about 2.3% nationally this year – and for that to happen, the pace would need to pick up a bit in the second half of the year. As we explored in our look at home price history, this kind of moderation followed by recovery is a pattern the market has followed before.

But Home Price Growth Is Still Very Local

National home price growth is really just an average of hundreds of local markets – some climbing faster, others still cooling. One reason the national average is looking more positive is because more metros are now seeing prices rise. Just recently, more than half of the major metros saw prices go up in a single month, according to Redfin.

As Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality, explained, local markets are still telling very different stories – with some areas, particularly those with strong job growth in the West and more affordable Midwest markets, seeing notable acceleration in price gains. North County sits in a region where affordability relative to other major metros has consistently supported demand, which is worth factoring into how you read these national trends. For a deeper look at how to interpret what you are seeing locally, our post on your local housing market breaks down exactly what the data means where you are.

What This Means for You

Home price growth headlines can be confusing because they rarely tell the full local picture. Here is what the current shift means depending on where you stand. If you are buying: the slower home price growth of the past year has worked in your favor. You have had more room to negotiate and a budget you could plan around. If home price growth is picking up in your area, buying now may mean paying less than you would later this year. As we covered in our post on home price headlines, the dips that get the most coverage are often smaller and more temporary than they sound.

If you own a home: you have been gaining equity all along, even while growth moderated. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, has noted, the typical homeowner is expected to gain roughly $16,000 in housing wealth this year. If home price growth continues to pick up, those gains could accelerate. And if you are thinking about selling, this early shift in momentum is a good sign – just remember the market is still balanced and buyer-friendly in many areas right now.

Bottom Line

Home price growth slowed significantly over the past year – and now the early signs suggest it may be turning around. That shift means something different depending on whether you are buying or selling, and it means something different again depending on your specific neighborhood. If you are a buyer or seller in North County and want to know exactly what prices are doing in your local market right now, let’s connect and we will show you what the data says and what it means for your plans.

The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Jess & Co. Real Estate, LLC does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Jess & Co. Real Estate, LLC will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.